Every page that ranks for Cadillac F1 odds today was written before the season started. The newest of them is dated 3 March 2026, five days before round one, and it quotes 500/1 on the constructors' title as though nothing has happened since.
Something has. Cadillac has started 30 races, scored zero points, failed to reach Q2 even once, and retired 12 cars. Polymarket's Cadillac constructors' market now trades at a flat 0.0, and the daily price history says it was never really anything else: the highest price Cadillac has ever held is 2.4%, on 13 January 2026, before the car had turned a competitive lap.
So this page answers the question the pre-season previews cannot: what is Cadillac actually worth betting on now, and where is the only line on the grid that still moves? I pulled all 15 rounds of race and qualifying results out of the Jolpica F1 feed, priced every Cadillac market on Polymarket and Kalshi directly from their public APIs, and measured the qualifying deficit round by round rather than describing it. Every number below was read on 30 September 2026, four days after round 15 in Baku.
Key takeaways
- The title markets are settled, not close. Polymarket prices Cadillac's constructors' championship at 0.0 and both drivers at 0.0 on the 2026 drivers' market. There is no Cadillac market anywhere that is not effectively resolved.
- Zero points from 30 starts, and zero Q2 appearances from 30 qualifying sessions. Best race finish is Bottas's P13 in China; best qualifying position is P18. No Cadillac car has finished inside the top ten all year.
- Cadillac came within a 10-second penalty of its first point. Pérez was classified 10th at Monaco and then dropped to 15th for putting his front-right wheel outside his grid box at the red-flag restart.
- The pace gap has barely moved: 2.79% over rounds 1-8, 2.54% over rounds 9-15. A mean qualifying deficit of 2.246 seconds to the fastest Q1 lap is why the price is zero rather than small.
- The live question is 10th place, not the title. Aston Martin is 10th on 3 points. One eighth-place finish is worth 4, so a single good afternoon in the last eight rounds flips the order — and no exchange has posted a market on it.
Where Cadillac F1 Odds Stand Right Now
I read these off the exchanges rather than out of someone's odds table, because the two venues disagree and the disagreement is the interesting part. Polymarket's F1 Constructors' Champion event carries a Cadillac market; Kalshi has no constructors' event at all, only the drivers' series, where both Cadillac entries are tagged :: Cadillac in the market subtitle.
| Market | Venue | Yes price | Volume | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac — constructors' champion | Polymarket | 0.0 | $3,708,690 | 30 Sep 2026, Gamma API |
| Sergio Pérez — drivers' champion | Polymarket | 0.0 | $11,796,905 | 30 Sep 2026, Gamma API |
| Valtteri Bottas — drivers' champion | Polymarket | 0.0 | $12,202,466 | 30 Sep 2026, Gamma API |
Sergio Pérez (KXF1-26-SP) | Kalshi | bid $0.00 / ask $0.01 | 99,036 contracts | 30 Sep 2026, public API |
Valtteri Bottas (KXF1-26-VB) | Kalshi | bid $0.00 / ask $0.01 | 25,904 contracts | 30 Sep 2026, public API |
| Cadillac constructors' title | Kalshi | No market exists | 30 Sep 2026, public API | |
Two things stand out. The first is that $3.7m has traded on a market priced at zero — more than has traded on Mercedes, the team that is about to win the thing, on $1.13m. That is not conviction in Cadillac. It is cumulative volume since the market opened on 10 December 2025, banked while the price drifted between 2.4% and nothing, and every zero-priced team in the event sits in the same $3.2m-$3.8m band. Volume on a longshot measures how long it has been quoted, not what anyone thinks of it.
The price history is the more useful record. Cadillac peaked at 2.4% on 13 January, was already under 1% before round one, and crossed 0.5% for the last time on 4 June 2026 — three days before the Monaco race that came closest to justifying a higher number.
The second is the sportsbooks. Pre-season they were quoting 500/1 on the constructors' title and 1000/1 on either driver; in-season reporting has them between +10000 and +25000. I did not verify a book directly today, so treat those as reported rather than measured — the two exchange prices above are the ones I read myself. The mechanics of why an exchange number is usually the cleaner one are in our guide to Polymarket versus the sportsbooks.
A price of zero is a real answer, though, and it is worth understanding what produced it.
Zero Points From 30 Starts: The Record Behind the Price
Here is the whole season, both cars, every round. Grid slot to classified finish, with the reason where a car did not see the flag.
| Rd | Grand Prix | Pérez (grid → finish) | Bottas (grid → finish) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia | 18 → 16 | 19 → retired |
| 2 | China | 21 → 15 | 19 → 13 |
| 3 | Japan | 19 → 17 | 20 → 19 |
| 4 | Miami | 20 → 16 | 19 → 18 |
| 5 | Canada | 20 → retired | 21 → 16 |
| 6 | Monaco | 18 → 15 (10th on the road) | 20 → retired |
| 7 | Barcelona | 19 → 14 | 20 → retired |
| 8 | Austria | 19 → retired | 20 → retired |
| 9 | Britain | 20 → 14 | 18 → 16 |
| 10 | Belgium | 18 → retired | 17 → 18 |
| 11 | Hungary | 22 → retired | 21 → retired |
| 12 | Netherlands | 22 → 15 | 21 → retired |
| 13 | Italy | 17 → 18 | 16 → 19 |
| 14 | Spain (Madrid) | 18 → retired | 19 → 18 |
| 15 | Azerbaijan | 20 → 14 | 19 → retired |
Read down the right-hand columns and the shape of the season is obvious. Pérez has three P14s and an average finish of 16.9; Bottas has one P13 and an average finish of 18.4. Neither has been classified in the top ten once. Their average starting slot is 19.3 from a 22-car grid, and the single P16 start at Monza came from other people's penalties, not from a quicker lap — Cadillac's best genuine qualifying position all year is P18.
That last distinction matters more than it looks. A team that qualifies 18th and finishes 14th is converting; a team that has never escaped Q1 in 30 attempts has a car problem, not a Saturday problem. The live version of this table, refreshed every ten minutes, sits on our constructors' championship page.
And in one race the conversion nearly paid.
The Monaco Point That Was Taken Away
Round six, 7 June, Monte Carlo. Pérez started 18th, survived a race that retired seven of 22 starters, and crossed the line 10th — Cadillac's first point, on the road. He did not keep it. The stewards gave him a 10-second time penalty for positioning his front-right wheel outside his grid box at the red-flag restart, which dropped him to 15th in the classification, where the official result still has him. Formula 1's own half-term report on Cadillac's season records it as the moment the team's year turned on a technicality.
It is worth sitting with how narrow that was, because it cuts both ways. A point at Monaco would have put Cadillac level with Aston Martin's eventual total and out of last place. It would also have flattered a car that had qualified 18th and needed a third of the field to break to be there at all.
Eight days earlier, RacingNews365 had run a piece asking whether Aston Martin or Cadillac would score first and leaned towards Cadillac on momentum. Monaco answered it in the other direction on the same afternoon: Fernando Alonso came from 21st to finish 10th and took the point Pérez lost. That is the whole gap between 10th and 11th in the constructors' standings, decided in one race in June, and it is still the live story four months later.
How Far Off the Pace They Actually Are
"Off the pace" gets asserted on every Cadillac page and measured on none of them, so I measured it. For each round I took Cadillac's best Q1 lap and the fastest Q1 lap in the session, and expressed the gap as a percentage — percentages, not seconds, because a 2-second gap at Spa is a much smaller failing than a 2-second gap at Monaco.
| Window | Rounds | Mean Q1 gap | Best weekend | Worst weekend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First half | 1-8 | 2.79% | Monaco, 1.98% | Australia, 3.90% |
| Since round 9 | 9-15 | 2.54% | Belgium, 1.85% | Hungary, 3.33% |
| Full season | 1-15 | 2.67% (2.246s) | Belgium, 1.85% | Australia, 3.90% |
Fifteen rounds of development have bought Cadillac a quarter of a percentage point. That is the single most important number on this page, and it is the reason a market prices the team at zero rather than at one or two per cent: the gap is not closing at a rate that changes anything before December. Pérez said in the spring that the car needed about a second a lap to reach the midfield; it has found roughly two tenths of that.
There is a more flattering way to read the same data, and it is also true. In 11 of 15 races, Cadillac's best Q1 lap was quicker than at least one car that was not a Cadillac — on average by 0.794s against the slowest non-Cadillac entry. They are not automatically the slowest team on the grid on a Saturday. Only four weekends — Australia, Hungary, the Netherlands and Madrid — had no non-Cadillac car slower than theirs in Q1, and Aston Martin's Honda power-unit vibration problems put cars behind them more than once. What separates Cadillac from those teams is not one lap. It is Sunday.
Reliability Is the Bigger Problem
A car that is 2.5% off the pace and finishes every race will eventually inherit a points position when the grid breaks. Cadillac's does not finish.
| Measure | Cadillac | Whole grid, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Starts | 30 | 330 |
| Cars retired | 12 | 71 |
| Retirement rate | 40.0% | 21.5% |
| Pérez retirements | 5 of 15 | — |
| Bottas retirements | 7 of 15 | — |
| Races with both cars out | 2 (Austria, Hungary) | — |
Cadillac retires at nearly twice the rate of the field. Formula 1's half-term report attributes it to repeated brake fires and overheating, with both cars lost to overheating in Austria and again in Hungary. It is also, in fairness, roughly what the team told everyone to expect: in February its owner said points would be “kind of an arbitrary target” for year one. The Ferrari power unit and gearbox they run until 2029 is not the problem the paddock talks about; the cooling package around it is.
This is why the two failings compound instead of averaging out. The races where a backmarker can steal a point are the chaotic ones, and chaotic races are exactly the ones a fragile car does not survive. Baku retired seven of 22 starters four days ago and Bottas was one of them. The same logic that drives safety-car and neutralisation markets works against a car that is likelier than any other on the grid to be parked before the end.
The Market That Matters: 10th Against 11th
Nobody needs a price on Cadillac winning the constructors' championship. The question with an actual edge in it is whether Cadillac finishes 10th or 11th, and the answer is close enough to be genuinely uncertain.
| Pos | Team | Points | How they got them |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Audi | 17 | Six scores, best P8 three times (Bortoleto twice, Hülkenberg once) |
| 9 | Williams | 12 | Six scores, best P8 (Albon, Monaco) |
| 10 | Aston Martin | 3 | Two scores, both Alonso: P10 Monaco (from 21st), P9 Netherlands (from 18th) |
| 11 | Cadillac | 0 | None. Best classified finish P13 |
Three points is the entire margin, and under the current scale a single eighth place is worth 4 — so one good afternoon in the remaining eight rounds does not just close the gap, it reverses the order. A ninth place (2 points) leaves Cadillac one short; a tenth (1 point) leaves them two short but off the bottom of the table for the first time.
Look at how Aston Martin's three points arrived and the route becomes concrete rather than hopeful. One of Alonso's scores came from 21st on the grid, the other from 18th — the same part of the grid Cadillac starts from every weekend, given its average slot of 19.3. Neither was a midfield car converting a midfield qualifying position. Both were a slow car surviving a messy race, which is exactly the outcome Cadillac has been chasing all year and has come within one stewards' decision of taking.
No exchange has posted a market on it. Polymarket's constructors' event prices only the championship, Kalshi has no constructors' series at all, and the sportsbooks' team-finishing-position markets are thin where they exist. If you want the number, you have to build it, and our constructors' points calculator is where the arithmetic lives.
What a First Point Needs in the Last Eight Rounds
So how often does the race Cadillac needs actually happen? I counted it. Across the 15 rounds run so far, at least one driver who started 16th or lower finished in the points in nine of them — 60% of races. The route exists and gets used regularly; Cadillac has converted none of it.
| Rd | Race | Date | GridOdds read on Cadillac's chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bahrain GP, Kuala Lumpur | 4 Oct | Heat is the team's known weakness, not its opportunity |
| 17 | Singapore | 11 Oct | Street circuit, high safety-car rate, hot — a coin flip |
| 18 | United States, Austin | 25 Oct | Home race for the team; bumpy surface is hard on cars |
| 19 | Mexico City | 1 Nov | Thin air punishes cooling; Pérez's home crowd |
| 20 | Brazil, São Paulo | 8 Nov | Wet-weather and red-flag history cuts both ways on a fragile car |
| 21 | Las Vegas | 22 Nov | Cold, low grip, late safety cars — best single chance |
| 22 | Qatar | 29 Nov | Tyre-limited and hot; poor fit |
| 23 | Abu Dhabi | 6 Dec | Clean, predictable, low attrition — worst fit |
That last column is a judgement, not a measurement, so here it is stated plainly: Las Vegas and Singapore look like the two genuine chances — cold tyres and late neutralisations in Nevada, a high safety-car rate over a long race in Marina Bay. Both are races that break other people's cars without asking much of a cooling package. Abu Dhabi is where seasons finish tidily, which is the last thing a team on zero wants.
My own read, stated plainly so it can be marked wrong: Cadillac more likely than not ends 2026 on zero. Nine of 15 races offered a back-of-the-grid points finish and they took none, their retirement rate is double the field's, and the pace curve has flattened. But "more likely than not" is a long way from the zero the market is quoting, and that gap is not tradeable anywhere today — which is the honest answer to why there is no Cadillac bet worth making.
Why Kalshi Says 1c and Polymarket Says Zero
The two exchanges quote Pérez differently, and it is not a disagreement about F1. Kalshi's order book moves in whole cents, so the lowest ask it can display above zero is $0.01. Pérez's book reads bid $0.00 / ask $0.01 with a last trade at $0.01 and 96,035 contracts of open interest. Polymarket's book has finer increments and simply shows 0.0.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Pérez, drivers' title | 0.0 | bid $0.00 / ask $0.01 |
| Bottas, drivers' title | 0.0 | bid $0.00 / ask $0.01 |
| Antonelli, drivers' title | 0.9115 | bid $0.92 / ask $0.93 |
| Constructors' market | Yes, 12 outcomes | None |
| Event close | 1 Apr 2027 | 22 Dec 2026 |
If you read an aggregator that converts Kalshi's ask into a probability, Pérez becomes a "1% chance" of winning the 2026 drivers' championship. He is on 0 points against Antonelli's 302 with eight rounds left, and eight straight wins would be worth 200 — so he is already eliminated, the real figure is zero, and Polymarket's book says so. A tick floor is not a forecast. This is the single most common way F1 longshot prices get misquoted, and it is worth knowing before you trust any cross-venue odds table. How the resolution rules and book sums work on both venues is covered in F1 on Polymarket.
How to Track Cadillac F1 Odds From Here
There is no Cadillac market worth watching this season, and I would rather say that than dress a zero up as a betting angle. What is worth watching is narrow and specific:
- The 10th-place fight, not the title. Aston Martin's 3 points is the only Cadillac-adjacent number that can still change. Our constructors' title page carries it live.
- Qualifying, every Saturday. A first Q2 appearance would be the first real evidence the 2.5% gap is moving. Thirty sessions, none yet.
- Attrition in the race before. A weekend that has already broken cars in practice is a weekend where a 14th-place car can finish 10th. The next race page carries the weekend markets and the weather.
- 2027, where the money actually is. Cadillac's second season is when a new team's price stops being a formality, and the 2027 markets have not opened yet — the timing is in F1 2027 championship odds.
Our live odds board reads every F1 market on Polymarket and picks up new events automatically, so if an exchange ever posts a Cadillac points or team-position market, it will appear there. Until then the honest number is the one at the top of this page.
Prices, volumes and open interest quoted here were read from the Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi public API on 30 September 2026; results, grids and qualifying times come from the Jolpica F1 feed for the 2026 season, after round 15. All of it moves. GridOdds earns a referral commission if you open a Polymarket account through links on this site; it costs you nothing and does not change what we write. Nothing here is betting advice.
Related Analysis
- F1 Constructors' Championship Odds & Standings 2026 — the full board Cadillac sits at the bottom of.
- F1 Constructors Points Calculator — the arithmetic behind the 10th-against-11th fight.
- F1 2027 Championship Odds — when the market that can price Cadillac properly opens.
- Polymarket vs Sportsbook F1 Odds — why a 500/1 quote and a 0.0 price are not the same claim.
- F1 on Polymarket — resolution rules, tick sizes and book sums.
- F1 Safety Car Odds — the attrition markets that decide whether a backmarker scores.